Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee

Two pools of capital – the franchising of AI digital infrastructure buildout and government spending – are interest rate-insensitive and require a massive quantum of debt, says Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Credit. Peters, who in his role oversees $1.2 trillion of assets under management, says the Federal Reserve has to hike interest rates to remain credible. But even with a few more hikes, he doesn’t see the current policy as being restrictive. “I’m not sure It quells inflation either,” Peters says. A slowdown of the AI buildout and capex would be a positive for investors and also help to stem inflation, he argues. Whether that will happen, though, is “still very much an open question.” But he notes that this will be the key driver of investment returns here over the next 12-24 months. “History shines a very poor light on excess capital being deployed in a short period of time,” he says. “It’s a trail of tears.” In addition, Peters shares his insights on emerging markets, Europe, Asia, and public and private debt markets.

“Interest rate markets are telling you that they really are concerned about inflation, and to a certain degree, concerned about the size of government debt,” says Symon Drake-Brockman, co-founder and managing partner at Pemberton Asset Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, taped on 9 September 2026. The re-engagement of hostilities between US and Iran has set that back in place, he adds, especially since we are moving into winter, when demand for gas and energy will increase. Drake-Brockman says US Treasury yields look quite high, but potential buyers are trying to work out whether the political debate between the White House and the Fed is going to continue. “If it does, then rates could probably go a bit higher,” he predicts. Europe will see more M&A. The world has fundamentally changed into three economic blocs – the US, China, and Europe, and the first two have been building large companies that operate through their entire economies and internationally, while Europe has lagged. But a new M&A framework will facilitate consolidation and that will ultimately bring Europe closer together, he contends. Drake-Brockman also discusses private credit and recent regulatory scrutiny. He and Pemberton are in dialogue with the Bank of England, and he shares that “they felt very comfortable that the industry is in a good place.”

“The market clearly is saying that he (US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) didn’t threaten a bazooka, he didn’t bring a bazooka, and he hasn’t shown a bazooka,” says Alan Schrager, chief investment officer at Oak Hill Advisors, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. The US Treasury Department has the capabilities to make an impact on rising sovereign bond yields, but the world hasn’t seen a major or real commitment to buy the long end, Schrager says: “In the absence of a bazooka, it’s very hard to make too much of an impact.” Schrager, who in his role as CIO helps oversee OHA’s $100bn+ of AUM, also discusses inflation, the health of corporations, the crowding out of capital by artificial intelligence investments, and private credit. While corporations are performing well and there’s no default cycle in near sight, there are idiosyncratic issues. The upshot is that private credit managers are going to end up owning more companies “than we would have traditionally done”, Schrager predicts, and they have to be prepared for that.

“Here we are again,” reckons Kort Schnabel, co-head of US direct lending at Ares Management, on the surprising return of inflation. Still, the economy is in a good place to be able to manage through these inflationary pressures we’re seeing, Schnabel explains to Lisa Lee on the latest episode of Credit Exchange. On artificial intelligence and disruption of software companies, Schnabel says we are “not out of the woods”. He adds, however, that there is some good news, in that “it’s not getting disrupted overnight.” Ares – an alternative asset manager with around $680 billion in AUM, and a private credit powerhouse – is open to lending to software firms, but the bar has risen higher, and he explains the factors. Schnabel is now seeing, for the first time in many years, real dispersion in performance among different managers. “I think you’re seeing the maturation of these portfolios, and you’re seeing the maturation of the portfolios that were ramped pretty quickly because there was a lot of money.” And big players that perhaps ramped a bit too quickly and were able to invest with that same pace, may not get bigger: “They might suffer.”

“The markets are recognising the risks around longer-term inflation. I think it’s recognising the ballooning deficits of governments around the world,” says Chris Wright, CEO and president of Crescent Capital Group, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, taped on 19 August 2026. “What you’re seeing is the repricing of long-term assets based on a recognition of a higher inflationary rate going forward,” says Wright, who helms the global alternative investment firm with over $50 billion of AUM. And the financing of growth in a more uncertain market is getting more expensive, he contends. Wright also discusses the tie-up of insurance firms and credit asset managers, and why that model has gained in popularity. Crescent is owned by insurance company SunLife. He also chats about corporate credit markets, artificial intelligence and the huge capital spending to support it, and the evolution of private credit funds.

The rise in real yields because of government deficit spending, alongside ongoing huge demands for AI investment, are underpinning the rise in interest rates, says Ashok Bhatia, chief investment officer at Neuberger, an investment management firm with more than $600 billion in AUM. Speaking with Lisa Lee on the latest episode of Credit Exchange, Bhatia says that real interest rates are the key to understanding the current bond market landscape. “The bond market’s really relaxed about intermediate term, 5-to-10-year inflation rates. It is just telling you there is not a problem,” he says. “[But] the big change that happened in the bond market is real interest rates. If the 10 -year today is about 4.7%, the market tells you inflation will be about 2.2%. That's a 2.5% real yield. So that’s up from basically zero. [Historically] it’s probably a little bit on the cheap side.” But he notes that if the real interest rate climbs to 3% or above, that’s when the economy can be in strife. “At that point, if an economy is growing at 2-2.5%, and you think about the real cost of capital at 4%, you’re upside-down on that,” he says. “And it’s often when financial accidents and problems happen.” Bhatia contends that for the bond market, it is suddenly starting to feel that a horizon which had previously felt distant, is now “on a horizon that we need to invest on.” For Bhatia, who is also Neuberger’s global head of fixed income, aggressive rate hiking by the Fed at this point would represent “a policy error”, although a single rate rise would not be the end of the world. “But if the Fed started taking the policy rate up 100 basis points... the market would conclude that is really not necessary. It would also probably start putting real interest rates into more of a danger zone [and] would probably have some repercussions for the dollar.” Bhatia also discusses dangers on the horizon in the bond market, the ongoing impact of the Iran war, and the distinctive characteristics of working for an employee-owned firm.

“Whenever you have noise, that leads to more selling volume in our market – so volatility for us as secondary investors is a very good thing,” says Michael Schad, head of credit at Coller Capital, a secondaries specialist with $55 billion in AUM, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Schad is positive about the overall health of private credit, describing it as a “very attractive and sound” asset class, with its rapid growth coming alongside a more recent maturing of the market. He notes, though, that a decade is “not a very long time”, as some of the funds can run for that period of time. “Because the asset class was so new, people couldn’t really calibrate what would happen in a more volatile market environment, which we just happened to hit over the last couple of years.” Schad explains that Coller generally engages in two types of transactions – buying fund positions where the seller is a limited partner (LP secondaries), and transactions where it is a general partner making the sales decision (GP secondaries). The latter have become increasingly popular more recently. The firm is also a leader in the continuation fund market. Schad notes that the major evolution that has taken place over the last couple of years is that technology developed in the equity secondaries market for continuation funds, has been adopted “on steroids” in the credit secondaries market. “[The reason] that was so successful... is that the way a continuation fund works in credit is very different to private equity,” he says. “What you have now in private equity, it is maybe a single asset that gets into a continuation fund. In credit, what you have is actually still very diversified portfolios. So you still have high quality loans in a very, very diversified fashion that a GP brings to a continuation fund.”

“It’s just like nothing we’ve ever seen before,” says Bryan Whalen, CIO of fixed income at $200 billion global asset manager TCW, in reference to AI’s capital spend, equity prices and momentum on the latest edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “What we’re looking at here is just everybody on one side of the boat, too much enthusiasm,” he says. “It just feels like it’s the beginning of the end of the euphoria.” The AI spending spree has broken the natural feedback loop to slow down borrowing. While the bond market is raising the cost of borrowing, these companies turn around and say, ‘we don’t care,’ Whalen contends. If the market starts to question the fundamental elements of the AI capital spend, that could lead not just to volatility in the sector, but for the rest of the market. And that would likely lead to an economic recession, reckons Whalen, who oversees $170 billion in AUM.

“One of the predictions I would make is that the private equity industry is in a tectonic, Darwinian moment itself,” says David Golub, co-CEO of Golub Capital, a direct lending specialist with more than $90 billion in AUM. Speaking on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, Golub also sees a ‘Darwinian moment’ for private credit due to higher-than-usual credit stress and lower-than-expected returns. “The winners thrive, they adapt, and they grow, and the losers, they don’t,” says Golub. This will all lead to more consolidation in the industry, and a core group of private equity and private credit firms of size unseen before. David, who along with his brother Lawrence Golub has been in the private credit space virtually since its inception, also speaks about the history of the industry, the recent bout of negative headlines, and trading the illiquid asset.

Lotfi Karoui, multi-asset credit strategist at fixed-income behemoth PIMCO, says the top risk to markets and the economy is the potential unwinding of the AI capex cycle, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “Then you’re going to tighten financial conditions,” says Karoui, which is bad news for equities. That will have wealth effects and probably affect the broader economy. The market isn’t blindly rewarding all capex financing announcements, he says. Right now, markets are seeing some indigestion regarding data centre financing – Karoui recommends looking at dollar versus other currency debt to see whether that’s fundamental or technical. Karoui, who is also co-head of client solutions and analytics at PIMCO, is watching six-month oil futures and diesel prices to gauge whether the resumption of the Iran war is choking up economic activity. We discuss his inflation expectations (moderating), the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy (on hold), and private credit (seeing some stress). He also finds pockets of fixed income in emerging markets such as Brazil and South Africa compelling.

“We certainly have noted from an oil price or fuel price perspective, just how comfortable businesses have gotten with oil price or gas price pass-throughs,” says Aaron Kless, CEO and CIO of direct lending specialist Andalusian Credit Partners, on the latest edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “They’ve really been able to manage that price volatility, and price spikes, quite well.” Andalusian has a unique perspective on the macro-economic backdrop. Its executive chairman is Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., a former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, who also sits on its investment committee. “Our view certainly is that there’s really no expectation of rate cuts, [and the] possibility of rate increases,” says Kless. The firm focuses on the so-called middle market segment, which drives around 40% of US GDP and 30% of US employment. “We continue to see real resilience in the consumer, even at the lower part,” says Kless, who was formerly head of non-sponsor direct lending at Apollo Global Management. Kless also discusses the attractiveness of sports investing due to the recurring, predictable and sticky nature of the cashflow. The World Cup will help boost soccer in the US. “We’re on the precipice of something really exciting around soccer,” he says. “We get to participate in the market, or at least in the deal flow in the market. [There are] lots of smart and interesting things happening around what I would call ‘minor league’ soccer.” Kless also talks about what makes a good investment in sports. For instance, pickleball as an amateur sport is interesting, but remains too emergent from a professional perspective for a credit investment.

“Last frontiers of alpha is in the sports and entertainment-related real estate,” says Jonathan Fascitelli, founder and CEO of sport and entertainment real estate firm Seregh, on a special edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, recorded at the FII Institute’s conference in Rome. Just 18 months since founding, Seregh already has more than $35 billion in their pipeline. Seregh, which has the backing of Creative Arts Agency (CAA), Apollo co-founder Josh Harris, and Blackstone’s David Blitzer among many others, seeks to develop and invest in infrastructures around stadium and arenas. That means building communities that include residential homes, office buildings, restaurants, and more. Fascitelli, who was formerly the CEO of Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment real estate, also talks about FII PRIORITY Europe 2026, of investing in the “collective effervescence” (the shared moment when everyone experiences the same thing at the same time – think recent moments involving the New York Knicks or English Premier League club Arsenal), and how that can combat the rise of AI.

“We’re clearly in late cycle, but we’re not obviously at the turning point,” says Ariadna Stefanescu, co-head of Permira Credit, in the latest edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Permira is a global investment firm with buyout and credit businesses holding nearly €90 billion in committed capital. The current environment provides an opportunity for different managers to differentiate themselves, says Stefanescu. Not only will there be more dispersion, but some shops will either fold or face consolidation. “Ultimately, some people will be priced out of the market,” she predicts. While Stefanescu expects defaults in sub-investment grade debt to increase, she also notes there have been structural changes that have served to reduce the default rate, most notably more pockets of liquidity.

Middle-market direct lending finances growing businesses, says Gauthier Reymondier, head of European credit at Bain Capital, a private equity and credit powerhouse with more than $225 billion in assets under management. Reymondier speaks about the fundamental difference between US and European economic growth, the impact of artificial intelligence and capex spending, and consumer habits. While European growth expectations have been very mediocre, more political stability would prompt consumers to spend more, he says, as has been the case in Spain, Portugal or Poland. “Trust would be the biggest growth driver,” Reymondier says. “I think stability is important because we see in our market that without stability, people don’t spend.” Bain Capital’s private equity arm this week announced a major deal to acquire Everllence, a marine power and turbomachinery manufacturer, in a carve-out from Volkswagen Group, and Reymondier also weighs in on the future prospects for M&A and LBOs.

Issues in the software space and a looming maturity wall will result in a return to more traditional distressed opportunities, says Jeff Kivitz, chief investment officer at Canyon Partners, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. There’s a wall of software debt maturities looming and while in the past these have “magically gone away, I think this wall is a little bit different,” Kivitz says. Eventually, the rubber will meet the road and there will be distressed and restructuring opportunities. Canyon, a global alternative investment manager with $30 billion in AUM, is a firm to watch. While others are pulling back from lending to software, Canyon earlier this year led the arranging of a landmark $4.8 billion private credit loan in the space. Kivitz explains how they got comfortable with backing private equity shop Thoma Bravo as its portfolio software company Auctane merged with logistics provider WWEX Group. In addition, Kivitz discusses how Canyon set up its new ABF unit, Canyon ABF Partners, with anchor investments from management, Daiichi Life Insurance and Korea Investment Holdings. He also talks about how Canyon nabbed credit market star Jay Kim, former CEO of Apollo’s ATLAS SP Partners.

“We’re starting to see some impact on cost. Very manageable, but it’s hard to ignore,” says Alex Chi, deputy CIO of global credit at Carlyle, one of the world’s largest investment managers with nearly $500bn in assets under management. Speaking on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, Chi says that they are being very careful about how they underwrite new credits going forward. But new originations and investments stand to benefit from higher interest rates, he adds, as most of Carlyle’s credit holdings are floating-rate. While Chi says consumer spending is holding up, particularly from higher-end consumers, Carlyle is staying away from credits that have significant exposure to discretionary consumer, “because we just don’t know what the impact’s going to be.” Expect to see more defaults within the software landscape, says Chi, who is also head of direct lending at Carlyle. The vintages of late 2020 through early 2022 are especially problematic. If you look at the rates of default within those vintages, they have the highest percentage of non-accruals and defaults, he says. “I think that we’re going to have to face the music at some point, because the maturity wall is coming,” Chi says. “And as a deputy CIO, I also think that could be very interesting for the opportunistic credit asset class.” On AI, the software firms experiencing problems aren’t a result of AI disruption, Chi contends. “I actually think that you’re going to see more of an impact of AI from white-collar business services companies,” he says.

The Iran war is currently in a “mushy middle”, says Marko Papic, a macro and geopolitical expert at global investment research firm BCA Research, in the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “[What] investors really have to focus on is not the verbiage, not the rhetoric, not the negotiations – but rather, the ships going in and out of Hormuz,” says Papic. While difficult to track, Hormuz has become a permeable membrane in the past few months. Combined with high oil reserves at the onset of the war, it’s helping prevent a calamitous global recession, and allowing time for the US and Iran to negotiate a truce. Recalling Baron Rothschild’s famous utterance that you ‘buy on the sound of cannons and sell on the sound of trumpets’, Papic predicts problems for economies and markets after the conflict ends, with Europe probably already in a mild recession as a result of the war. Inflation will be stoked because government will attempt to refill depleted oil inventories, and the AI build-out is proving to be more inflationary than previously thought. Papic, who is also the author of ‘Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future’, also discusses mid-term elections in the US, the Federal Reserve, and China.

The US healthcare space is very interesting as far as real estate is concerned, says David Mihalick, co-head of global investments at Barings, a $500 billion alternative asset manager with expertise in credit, real assets and emerging markets. Mihalick points to demographic trends with an ageing population and the need for medical offices and senior housing as reasons why Barings is keen. “We think that creates a really compelling investment opportunity, and we’re looking to take advantage of that in our business.” Mihalick, who once served as the head of private assets as well as head of US public fixed income and US high yield at Barings, expects to see more trading of private credit loans. On high-yield bonds, despite the low spreads, Mihalick contends that investors are getting appropriately compensated. He also discusses infrastructure CLOs, a fairly novel structure that Barings is among the few firms involved in issuing, and private credit CLOs in Europe, where Barings is one of two managers currently issuing such deals.

“The dispersion in performance is becoming more visible, certainly to institutional investors,” says James Reynolds, global co-head of private credit at Goldman Sachs, on the latest episode of the Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. “It’s clear, as you travel the world and speak to LPs, that there is a flight to quality happening. There is a flight to quality and scale,” he says. The headlines around private credit are focused mainly on BDCs, which accounts for $400bn of the asset class and is located in the US. The distribution yields have come down, Reynolds notes, but they were perhaps inflated since, over the course of 2022 and 2023, interest rates went from zero to 5%. When the market dislocates, you tend to earn excess yield. And there’s also momentum with institutional investors, who understand this is a pretty interesting moment to step into these markets, Reynolds says. He sees opportunities “everywhere” – in direct lending senior, direct lending junior, capital solutions, anything around infrastructure, ABF, structured IG, and single-name corporate IG private. The first quarter of this year was the busiest ever for Goldman’s private credit team, and Reynolds expects the rest of the year to be busy as well.

“We’ve been very opportunistic about deployment in cycles or dislocations, which I think we’re in the very early innings of,” says Milwood Hobbs, Jr., deputy chief investment officer of Oaktree’s strategic credit platform, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. There were about USD 200bn of private credit loans inked in 2021 and 2022, when tech-related business valuations had reached all-time highs. Since then, interest rates went from zero to 5%, valuations came down, and free cash disappeared. And AI has made it more difficult to price the risk and support the businesses. These loans mature in 2027 and 2028, and that’s where Hobbs suggests “you should focus on potential dislocation.” New private credit deals should be more sensible. The recent spate of withdrawals from BDCs means that marginal buyers are gone, which means higher spreads and more conservative capital structures. “I think that is good for the investor and good for the market,” Hobbs says.

“Everybody’s still searching for that easy button on AI,” says David Neuenhaus, US head of asset management and private equity at KPMG, on the latest edition of the Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee, taped at the conclusion of the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills. Neuenhaus says AI was among the hottest topics at the conference, which featured a who’s-who of the finance world, as well as former NBA star Shaquille O’Neal and football legend Tom Brady. “There are some early adopters – some folks that have, I think, figured out ways to apply it and get traction sooner,” Neuenhaus says. On attracting retail cash, he says: “We are on a journey, a learning curve here.” There will be ways to address the liquidity needs of the average investor in a more sophisticated manner as we move forward, he says. There’s a rush toward retail, but the first movers have already arrived and it’s a crowd movement. For new entrants, there are some cases where “it’s a hard look in the mirror,” because not every firm is prepared to chase retail money. “You’ve really got to get your house in order.” Neuenhaus also shares his opinion on some good news on the regulatory front for asset managers and private equity firms: “I think that’s a nice direction of travel.”

“We have ample liquidity,” says Dan Leiter, head of international at Blackstone Credit & Insurance, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, as he explained the firm’s decision to honour all withdrawal requests at its private credit perpetual fund. “[As a result] it was not an issue to honour the redemption, and we thought it was the right thing to do,” says Leiter. Competitors – some of whom capped redemptions at 5% – made assessments and opted for what was right for their vehicles. “They also have different liquidity profiles. They have different considerations,” he adds. Leiter also addresses whether retail investors understood the terms of these perpetual funds, and says he has heard of no complaints from retail investors about being capped. The negative headlines, which have more of an impact on retail investors, should wane soon. “When we look back in just a few months’ time, I don’t think it will take that long. Everyone will see that actually, the return profile in private credit remains really attractive, especially versus liquid credit,” predicts Leiter, who is also global head of liquid credit at the asset manager, which boasts around $1.3 trillion in AUM. Shifting gears, Leiter says that everything that’s happening around AI is real, and there will be a lot of disruption. But, so far, Leiter says that Blackstone’s credit portfolios are performing well. He isn’t seeing any major stress in Blackstone’s portfolio companies. But “that doesn’t mean there won’t be idiosyncratic defaults here and there,” he cautions. Private credit default rates remain in line with, or even lower than, the publicly-traded leveraged loan market, and Leiter believes recoveries will be higher than for leveraged loans as well. He also discusses opportunities in Asia, investment-grade private credit, and insurance; he also provides insights into growth prospects in the US, Europe and Asia, against the backdrop of the Iran war.

Global economies are adjusting to the oil shock from the Iran war, says Juhi Dhawan, macro strategist at Wellington Management, on the latest episode of the Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee – and China has shown surprising resilience that may improve its competitiveness against Europe, Japan and some other Asian countries. Looking at the past performance of economies and markets to oil shocks, one of the surprises this time has been China, Dhawan says. It has held up better because it has reduced its reliance on oil due to its big push into renewables and coal. That’s good news in that China is a big driver of global growth, but less good in that China is already in a very competitive position from a manufacturing standpoint relative to Europe, Japan, and some other countries in south-east Asia. “One of the questions we are asking ourselves is, will China again gain competitiveness as Europe struggles with this energy shock; as Japan faces this energy shock,” Dhawan says. “[Will] China end up being relatively better off compared to what its past would have suggested?” Dhawan, who leads analysis of the US economy at Wellington, an asset manager with more than $1.3 trillion in AUM, says the United States came into 2026 with some of the most accommodative fiscal and monetary policy set-up in a few years. That creates some buffer room for the economy to withstand these higher energy prices. Besides energy prices, Dhawan also discusses productivity gains from AI, the labour market, trade flows and demographics. In addition, financial markets are reacting to the Iran war, resulting in adjustments. There could be boosts coming into AI-related areas, power, and energy, she says.

“The doomsday scenario is a complete over-exaggeration,” says David Manlowe, CEO of Benefit Street Partners, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Manlowe asserts that investors will have time to see the impact of artificial intelligence, which could even help boost margins at software firms. “I don’t see a big company like, for example, Franklin Templeton, ripping out their core software system in the next couple of quarters.” The average level of exposure is around 22-23% for BDCs, Manlowe says, but among funds, there’s huge disparity. If one drew a histogram of all private credit BDCs and their ownership of software, it would range from funds focused on technology at up to 70%, while others are at 2%. BSP, the $94 billion alternative credit business inside Franklin Templeton, has around 9.5% exposure to software. Where the rubber really hits the road, is not in performance this quarter or next quarter, but when these companies have to refinance their debt, Manlowe notes. And that doesn’t really start until the second half of next year. That said, there will be some early indicators in the earlier part of the year, and every quarter to follow. “You could see, over the next few quarters, an extended period of time where some of these software companies actually see a fairly significant margin expansion, because they’re so much more efficient at how they’re writing code and deploying code, so on and so forth.” This raises a key question – how wide, and how deep, is the moat around a given software application? On the recent withdrawals from semi-liquid private credit funds, Manlowe believes the design of the product was very thoughtful around the asset class. The 5% cap ensures what’s going into the funds actually has a duration that is shorter and can fund the redemptions. “That five percent per quarter wasn’t a made-up number,” he says. “There’s something I learned through all this – maybe we didn’t educate as much as we should. “Let’s get back out educating the investor base. It’s not a product design flaw.” On the Iran war, Manlowe predicts it will have an impact on short-to-intermediate-term inflation. He is upbeat about the prospects for floating-rate credit markets in particular: “[The] underlying economy, both in the US and Europe, should be conducive to the companies that we lend to, and the companies in the market performing reasonably well.”

“We are going to see consumer pain, and particularly on the lower-income side of things,” says David Saitowitz, head of US liquid credit at ICG, a global alternative asset manager with $127 billion in AUM, on the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. That means certain sectors could get hurt while others do very well, he says, adding that it’s a trend he’s already seeing. Anything consumer related – whether it’s housing, travel, to apparel and retail, are under pressure. “Those areas, I think, are all feeling a decent amount of pain, and I think they will continue [to].” Saitowitz is especially worried about housing, as rates stay higher for longer. The economics around housing continue to be weak and that has real implications for people everywhere, he observes. He also notes that we are in an interesting time where, with a massive technological innovation underway, that factor could be overshadowing geopolitical events which may have been considered in a more serious way previously. On artificial intelligence, ongoing new advancements will lead to difficulties for software firms, he believes, especially those that were over-levered and need to refinance soon. “We will see some LMEs; we will see some bankruptcies,” he says. And when that does happen, he adds, recent history suggests recoveries will probably be worse than we have seen in some time. But that said, there’s plenty of companies that will do just fine, and Saitowitz doesn’t believe there will a widespread or massive spike in defaults.

Private credit firms, including Hayfin, are still willing to lend to software companies, says Marc Chowrimootoo, co-head of direct lending at alternative asset manager Hayfin, on the latest episode of the Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. “If that call comes in, we absolutely take that call,” says Chowrimootoo, on how he responds to a request from a private equity fund for a software LBO financing. “We absolutely give it the due care and attention.” But the willingness to partake has moderated, he adds. “Everyone is being much more judicious.” There are a number of questions you can go through with a private equity buyer who understands what they’re doing, Chowrimootoo says. For example: how can I understand why this is more insulated than others out there? How embedded is this platform with its customers? What’s different about the ownership of data in this particular asset? What’s the protected moat around the end customer, and the usage of this in the technology? Regarding software exposure more broadly in the private credit market, Chowrimootoo notes that Europe has less exposure compared to their counterparts in the US. In addition, while retail capital is a huge portion of the US market, European private credit funds have less than EUR 10bn in retail vehicles. On the geopolitical front, Chowrimootoo says Europe has had to deal with many periods of volatility. “It’s way too soon to be making a judgment on where the direction of travel is on credit spreads; where the direction of travel on default levels are; where the direction of travel is on stress of earnings.”

The current period is a “really important rite of passage” for retail access to private credit and direct lending, says Tristram Leach, head of investments Europe at Apollo Global Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “The five percent number is there for a reason,” says Leach, speaking about recent outflows from semi-liquid private credit funds that have seen a pickup in redemption requests (some firms have given back more than the agreed 5%; some have limited at 5%). “It’s important to protect remaining investors. It’s a level of liquidity that has been promised. And in general, we think the appropriate way to proceed is to do what you said you’d do.” Direct lending, he believes, will continue to grow – but it needs to go through a period where there are elevated redemptions in the marlet. “People want their money back. You have to see the products work as they were designed to work. And the way they’re designed to work is they give five percent. That, broadly speaking, is the appropriate design, and how it should function,” Leach contends. He adds that we are still in a fairly early period in the development of wealth access to direct lending. Consequently, it’s understandable that results in a “slightly flightier” asset base compared to institutions. Leach understands the argument that the central composition of the direct lending market does put it more in the crosshairs of this threat. “The very high software concentration, certainly among some of our peers in private credit, does create some additional risk when you think about AI disruption,” says Leach, who is also the co-head of European credit at Apollo. Across the firm, Apollo has around 2% software exposure. Even within direct lending, Apollo is “clearly at the bottom end of the range,” Leach says. Nonetheless, he believes the market was relatively slow to wake up to the potential of AI. “What’s surprising to me is that when Claude Code came out, the market suddenly noticed,” he says. “We’ve been watching the incredible pace and development of large language models for several years now.” On Europe, the Iran war probably represents more of a cyclical threat to Europe than the US because of the energy price dynamic and geographical proximity, Leach believes. “That is definitely a headwind to growth; it’s a headwind to cyclical industries. “Especially for companies exposed to growth in Europe, that’s going to be a challenge, because of the inflation impacts to energy prices.” Nonetheless, that doesn’t materially impact Leach’s expectations for greater infrastructure investment and defence investments on the continent. “There’s been a huge change in the attitude of European policymakers towards the need to spend money, become more productive, become more competitive. All these things are clearly felt viscerally within Europe because of how fragile the continent’s position seems. I think you’re going to see changes, and I think you’re going to see Europe seek to take advantage of the opportunity,” Leach says. Leach also shares why, in football, he is wholly committed to Atlético Madrid.

“We’ve never had more undrawn capital,” says Jonathan Dorfman, chief investment officer at Napier Park Global Capital, a $40bn alternative credit manager. Napier Park has been prepping for a repricing of financial assets that predates the Iran war and the software crisis, Dorfman said in the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Have ready cash and take advantage to buy assets that are going to come up for sale very soon, Dorfman advises. He says credit spreads should widen further: “We are going to see more and more problems occur, and more and more bad headlines.” While Dorfman believes people will look back and say the headlines over private credit’s software issues were overblown, it’s appropriate there’s been a dramatic repricing, because of the enormous uncertainty caused by AI. The more sophisticated software companies are not going to sit still, and they will figure out how AI benefits them, and come out stronger. But some won’t. On risk from the Iran war, Dorfman says history shows that markets usually have a short-term, very violent downward move with some type of capitulation to major geopolitical developments – but then they recover. Sustained high oil prices need to last at least a few months to meaningfully affect the real economy, and therefore financial markets. Right now, it’s too early to tell if this is a buy-the-dip moment. But it’s probably a fine strategy, he reckons. A pioneer of the credit default swap, Dorfman says the CDX index is saying there’s a lack of fear about a recession and/or a meaningful economic slowdown. Risk premiums are higher, but they’re not high in an absolute sense that would be consistent with a slowdown.

“Private markets and private credit can be very, very helpful,” says Andrew Davies, in reference to the emerging dislocations he sees in financial markets, on the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. Davies is the head of credit at CVC Capital Partners, a global private markets manager with more than EUR 200bn in AUM. That help could be in the form of helping banks that are struggling to offload underwritten debt, scooping up publicly trading debt that’s priced too low, or providing to financial sponsors who find banks pared back, Davies says. “We’ve seen it every time there’s a period of volatility,” he adds. CVC and private credit is still deploying, despite increasing geopolitical risks, fears of AI disruption, and negative headlines around the industry, particularly in the US. European private credit is different, Davies contends, with more stability in capital flows that are more reliant on institutional investors rather than affluent individuals. The opportunity in Europe is to access a fragmented market that is less mature and has less competitive tension. “It’s been somewhat immune from that over the last year or so, in terms of what you’re sensing coming out of the news flow in the US,” Davies says. His biggest worry is around a heightened risk environment in the geopolitical landscape. There has already been short-term price action in energy markets, which Europe is very exposed to. “Does that flow into inflation? Does that flow into rates? Does that flow into a number of things?” he asks.

“You are going to hit a little bit of a wall because of power. You’re going to hit a little bit of a wall, because of the sheer capital that’s supposed to be there to finance that piece,” says Joel Holsinger, co-head of alternative credit at Ares Management, on the latest edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Holsinger expects to see a slowdown, because the current level is “probably unsustainable” for the sheer amount of capital that is required for all these projects, along with the amount of power generation that needs to be built. Already, banks are trying to reduce their exposure across some of their data centre names, Holsinger says – not due to risk or fear, but because they want to buy more. “They’re already at capacity issues, because the opportunity set is so big,” he says. Holsinger adds that there are emergent signs of concern for troubled credits. “Right now, we’re in the situation where the tide has not gone out. That’s very clear,” he surmises, referencing Warren Buffett’s famous line. “Underlying fundamentals are generally good. But you’re seeing some random nudity on the beach.” This said, Holsinger contends there are not yet huge cracks emerging in underlying credit markets, either on fundamentals or spreads. But he believes we are at the end of the cycle, and there is more news to come. Holsinger, who is co-head of the Ares Charitable Foundation, also discusses philanthropy and “Promote Giving”, an innovative method to commit at least 5% of fund performance fees to charity.

The investing environment has gotten hard, says Christopher Sheldon, co-head of credit and capital markets at KKR, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “It’s adult swim only.” There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, and much of the investor community is trying to figure out what playing field they’re on, explains Sheldon. He discusses KKR’s latest investor letter, titled CTRL + ALT + CREDIT, intended to reboot how investors are approaching credit. Sheldon contends that you have to be well-versed, have scale, and create your own origination, because elevated defaults and downgrades along with spreads tightening results in a “tough recipe”. “The more flexibility you have, the more ways to win. The more scale and breadth and origination you have, the more ways to win,” he says. Sheldon worries about lack of new supply in debt markets, that may cause spread tightening. He also notes the growing concern around outflows from certain markets. Right now, the private credit market is starting to see some flows come out on the wealth side, which is fine as redemptions are often capped. But if that is sustained for long periods of time, there may be a little bit more volatility in the market, he warns. On AI, the technology is moving so quickly that there is a need to be thoughtful, be able to pivot, and re-underwrite these businesses. In the liquid market, it’s important to have the flexibility to buy or sell, and to get out of situations where that thesis might have changed. In illiquid markets like private credit, he advises to focus more attention on structures that protect from assets being stripped out, from cash leaking out of the system. “Even if you do worry that maybe it’s a little less resilient, having that structure could be the key differentiator of having ball control,” he says. “Even if you do worry that maybe it’s a little less resilient, having that structure could be the key differentiator of having ball control,” he says. Sheldon also reiterates that the private credit market is not just the direct lending market any longer. The bigger part of the private credit market is asset-based finance, which is financing the real world economy, whether it be consumer loans to hard assets like aircraft or commercial lending, or music intellectual property. ABF is a huge growing market and is a great diversifier to portfolios today, he reckons. KKR credit investor letter: https://bit.ly/4aYV4pN

Europe has mostly missed the AI boom that’s driven a large part of US economic growth, says Mathew Cestar, president of Arini Capital Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, taped in the London offices of the alternative asset manager. But that actually makes European credit more appealing, because while the intersection of technology and AI is an exciting equity story, that intersection in credit can involve “a lot of risk.” Cestar, who was once the co-head of investment banking at a large global bank, expects to see a broadening of M&A deals in terms of size, sectors and geographies, given the supportive interest rate and anti-trust environment. He also sees continued interest in Europe from global investors. And he welcomes more regulatory scrutiny for private credit, predicting that will result in better players in the market. “We’re super-embracing the fact that regulatory folks are now focused on private credit,” says Cestar. “If you want a market to grow sustainability and consistently, the regulatory framework is critical.” On the private credit market, Cestar forecasts troubles, that will lead to more dispersion of returns among shops. “We’re expecting an uplift in some of the private credit defaults,” he says. Defaults in the space have so far been relatively muted, but “that will start to change, because they can’t defy gravity,” Cestar believes.

“We have this great tool out there called AI, and we haven’t 100% figured out how to implement it yet,” says Mark Jenkins, co-president and head of global credit & insurance at Carlyle, on the latest edition of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Jenkins predicts that the next stage is going to be how corporates implement AI into their workflows, and that the process is “really in the first innings of implement”. OpenAI, Anthropic, and many others are developing tools for workflow, and Jenkins predicts they will take “not years, but several months” to impact systems. Carlyle, for example, is already using AI to help its investment group be more efficient, and to consume massive amounts of data in ways that would be difficult without AI, says Jenkins. But one has to use AI appropriately, he adds. “It’s not going to make the decision for you.” While change has been a constant feature during Jenkins’ 35-year career, nothing has been like AI in the past three years. Embrace the change and incorporate it into what you do, because typically, those are the ones that prosper, he counsels. On the broader investing climate, Jenkins is positive about the macroeconomic environment for the next 12 months. But moving out to 2027 and 2028, inflation may rear its head again.

“Whether it be in the high yield bond market or in the leveraged loan market, even the hint or threat of AI impeding on really any sector – you see pretty significant downside,” says Mitch Garfin, co-head of leveraged finance at the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Garfin is constructive on the market generally, with growth continuing to “chug along” and inflation currently well-contained. He also identifies significant opportunities from AI, including ongoing data centre build-outs contributing to a significant uptick in supply in the high yield market that is likely to continue. But, he notes, there have also been situations where bonds and loans are down anywhere from a couple of points, and in some cases 5 or even 10 points, on “the immediate sort of threat” from AI. “It’s something to keep an eye on,” he says. Discussing the high yield market specifically, Garfin observes that consumer and retail continue to lag. “We’ve been underweight retail, consumer products, restaurants, leisure – a lot of the sectors that are going to be more impacted by a declining or weaker low-to-middle-class consumer,” he says. He also gives advice to younger industry hopefuls, including staffers and investors.

“It’s going to be a slow build, and we think a sustained multi-year increase in activity,” says David Miller, head of private credit and equity at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, speaking about M&A and LBOs. The geopolitical headlines haven’t yet changed the economic picture, says Miller. But over time, they may impact on confidence and fan uncertainty. “As uncertainty rises, risk premium will rise. So that can change the calculus - but we’re not seeing it in the markets yet,” he observes. Miller also discusses running both the private equity and private credit businesses at Morgan Stanley’s asset management arm, a team that numbers more than 150 strong, and what it’s like being part of a global bank.

R.J. Gallo, deputy CIO of fixed income at Federated Hermes, addresses the recent DOJ move to investigate Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell and the possible impact on monetary policy, on the latest episode of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Gallo, who will take up the fixed income CIO role in May, says we might see a more divergent FOMC where the votes actually matter. “Does that make them more hawkish? I don’t know. I’ll tell you this. It certainly won’t make the hawks more dovish,” he says. “It’s important to realise that many presidents get frustrated with the Federal Reserve,” adds Gallo, who prior to joining Federated Hermes in 2000, was at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But what has been extraordinary in the Trump administration has been the full-on verbal assault of the Federal Reserve and the resultant “feud between the White House and the Fed.” And the most recent development of the DOJ subpoena has to be viewed in that context. On fixed income, Gallo takes a bit more of a cautious view. While his base case is for the US economy to grow in 2026, he is keeping some powder dry to reassess, in case there’s spread widening. “We don’t just want to chase an already highly-valued market.” Another thing to watch is AI, which has accounted for a large portion of equity returns and stimulated the US economy through high capex spending. If we see poor returns to AI capex, that could challenge equity and credit valuations, Gallo says.

“I come into the year extremely bullish about fixed income and credit in general,” says John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector credit at Janus Henderson, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. The asset manager oversees nearly half a trillion dollars of AUM. Lloyd speaks about how markets are shrugging off some recent big geopolitical events because they do not impact earnings today and are viewed as one-off events, bespoke to a single country. Instead, they are focused on positive GDP growth as well as the Fed, which will be a tailwind to investing, as the US central bank is now injecting liquidity back into markets. Artificial intelligence is also a focus. The hyperscalers will increase their capex budgets because they are in a race over the next several years. Google, Facebook, Oracle and others are all issuing a tremendous amount of debt to support that capex growth. “You are going to see a lot of supply increase this year from AI,” Lloyd says. “I think that’s going to be a little bit of a negative supply technical in the fixed income markets this year, especially in the investment grade space.”

While credit is “probably a four-letter word right now,” it is doing reasonably well, says Tom Majewski, founder and managing partner at Eagle Point Credit Management. “But headlines around the space will continue, and perhaps that unto itself creates some credit challenges,” he adds on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Majewski unpacks the First Brands collapse and fraud in general, noting there’s been a significant decline of occurrences of fraud in the US economy since the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. He also discusses liability management exercises (LMEs), or coercive restructurings, sharing Eagle Point’s upcoming research that shows there’s been over 100 LMEs in the last five years. “If there’s a little over 1,000 loans, that’s about a 2% LME rate per year, separate from defaults.”

The degree of inflation the past few years has stretched the ‘K’ that defines the K-shaped economy, says Cindy Beaulieu, chief investment officer at Conning Noth America, in the latest ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’ podcast. Asset valuations and home prices have further added to the pressure. The labour market is central to consumers in both the top and bottom of the K. The upper cohort are participating in the economy in a strong way. The bottom cohort are also participating – but even a modest amount of inflation is painful for them, because the base level of prices now is so much higher than it was just a few years ago. “I would put right in the centre of those two lines of the K, the labour markets,” says Beaulieu, who sets fixed income and equity strategy for Conning North America, which serves the insurance industry and has nearly $200bn in assets under management. “It’s kind of like a rubber band. As long as it doesn’t snap, it holds the K together.” In terms of investing, Beaulieu thinks corporate fundamentals are good. While valuations are stretched, all-in yields are accretive, particularly to fixed-income portfolios. She likes the structured areas and private placements.

The driver for 2026 will be the real step-change in capex requirements all around the AI data boom and the needs of hyperscalers, said Fabianna Del Canto, co-head of EMEA capital markets at MUFG, on the latest episode of the ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’ podcast. “The absolute quantum required by the data centres dwarfs really any other type of infra-spend that we’re seeing,” said Del Canto. Among myriad other effects, AI has brought about a previously-unimaginable type of demand on, effectively, the entire energy supply ecosystem. Because it’s impacting such a large-scale industry and multiple secondary ones, this is a “real seminal moment and period in time, in terms of how we’re shaping the economies going forward for the future,” she added. But financing the AI boom will look different in Europe and the US. “In Europe, you’re seeing a lot of discussion amongst leaders in the energy space trying to solve this from a sustainable angle,” Del Canto said. “It’s not energy at any cost or any type.” Beyond data centres’ capex needs, Del Canto expects capital markets to be just as busy in 2026, if not busier. As a result, there’s a risk of spreads widening. “We see a very healthy pipeline, and supply is going to keep ticking up in our view,” she said.

Innovation on the liability side is allowing insurance companies to change their funding costs and be more competitive, says Gary Zhu, deputy chief investment officer of insurance at AllianceBernstein (AB), in the latest episode of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Zhu discusses the proliferation of insurance capital into private assets. He explains that dynamic has to do with lengthening lifespans and a declining lapse rate, the percentage of policies that don’t renew, which has allowed insurance firms more flexibility on liquidity. “They can deploy that capital into private assets, and earn that incremental spread, without giving up anything that they needed,” he says. On the recent stock market volatility, Zhu says that staying invested during good times and bad is important for equity investors in general. On investing, AB’s insurance silo, which has around $200bn in AUM, has been overweight allocations to residential housing credit. “We like the housing market in the US,” he says. “So [the] residential credit market seems to be a place that people have underappreciated the value in the housing markets.”

The end of the US government shutdown has paved the way for a “renewed melt up,” says Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Not just risk assets like equities and credit, but things like gold and Swiss francs, as people worry about how this ends – even as the tide of easy money pushes everything upwards, says King, formerly Citi’s global markets strategist and one of the most widely-followed commentators on financial markets. Since early 2024, the linkage between central bank liquidity and credit spreads and equities has weakened somewhat. It’s not disappeared entirely, but in equities especially, different factors have had an impact. Exuberance and excitement around AI are part of the story, King says, but there’s also ongoing support from fiscal policy and huge fiscal deficits, as well as the massive growth in repo to around a trillion dollars a year, which is becoming increasingly important. “It’s about how much money we’re creating and where that money is then going,” King argues. “I think that’s the main mistake investors have made. If you’ve tried to invest on the basis of your economic view, for over a decade, you’ve struggled, because the drivers here are markets first, and then the economy bringing up the rear.”

The bankruptcies of auto sector firms First Brands and Tricolor Holdings hold “lessons for the future” for credit investors, says Tetragon co-CIO Dagmara Michalczuk on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “The governance issue, although it seems like a soft and fuzzy idea, is incredibly important,” Michalczuk says. “Investing with folks that are not transparent – that has its risks. Lessons can be learned and should have been learned, in both instances.” Overall, Michalczuk’s assessment of the general macro outlook sees slow growth, “slower than what we saw post-pandemic.” With this said, she agrees with the consensus view in the market that 2026 might see a reacceleration of growth, given the downward trajectory of rates, significant fiscal stimulus in the US and Europe, deregulation, and the ongoing capital investment in AI. Credit investors should be prudent and have informed views and opinions on AI, Michalczuk says. At Tetragon, Michalczuk’s team is adapting by looking across their portfolio, “not just [at] software and tech companies, but all of our exposures,” considering both potential positive and negative impacts. “The big concern… is we’re missing something, [that] a business very rapidly becomes undone by a newcomer that disrupts the industry.” That’s why continual reanalysis over time is important, Michalczuk says.

“There are lots of mixed signals out there,” says Chris Wright, president of Crescent Capital Group, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. That’s creating uncertainty. “When we think about the investment environment, we approach it with caution.” On the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor, Wright doesn’t see them as canaries in the coalmine or a tipping point in the economy. But they do show that due diligence matters. There were audit flags, governance failures, and opaque structures that sounded warning bells. “We have to be diligent in our work,” Wright notes. Crescent, a global credit manager with almost $50bn in AUM, recently launched a CLO ETF and has plans to introduce other product, Wright adds. While too early to say whether Crescent will start a European CLO management business, it’s “certainly something that is on our drawing board and we’re spending a lot of time thinking about and assessing,”, Wright says.

Bret Leas, co-head of asset-backed finance at Apollo Global Management, speaks about this booming segment of private credit with Credit Exchange host Lisa Lee, managing editor at Creditflux and editor-at-large at Debtwire. Leas can see the private credit market exceeding the current growth forecast of $40 trillion, and that will have repercussions. “The financing toolkit has gotten so much broader,” he observes. Leas says both public and private investments can be risky and safe. He cautions that there are excesses in the system. Leverage has been ticking up steadily and documentation, especially in the public markets, has been very weak for some time. “There is a level of diligence that you need to do when lending money,” Leas says. For ABF, Europe probably represents a bigger opportunity than the US, Leas contends. The continent has a very narrow banking system and an insurance system that is underinvested. “You have countries that have been so far behind in their build that the ability to catch up through traditional means is very, very unlikely.” Leas also discusses the war for talent, trading of investment-grade private loans, and the knock-on effects of the spending on artificial intelligence.